As with everything concerning the Trump presidency, there is always the need for an assessment. Such evaluations are all-too-often partisan. In this early examination, the author is concerned not with the politics but with Trump’s quest to reestablish US leadership and momentum in the war on terrorism. Through the prism of an early assessment, this post provides an evaluation of what has been done by President Trump in dealing with transnationalism terrorism in the opening months of his presidency.
Confronting Terrorism in Somalia
One of the early counterterrorism decisions of the Trump presidency called for the creation and implementation of a directive that increased US military activity against Al Shabaab. The authority grants the head of Africa Command, to increase precision airstrikes against Al Shabaab, expand raids against the terror group, and the deployment of troops from the 101st Airborne Division to train and equip the Somali National Army.
The ultimate objective of the White House order, according to Pentagon Spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis, is “The additional support provided by this authority will help deny al-Shabaab safe havens from which it could attack US citizens or US interests in the region.”[1]
The order represented a dramatic departure from President Barack Obama’s approach in dealing with terrorism in Somalia. Under Obama, the decision making process was considered too slow, tied the hands of the regional commander, and relied almost exclusively on the use of special operation raids.
General Thomas Waldhauser, the individual in charge of Africa Command, observed the new order “… allows (us) to prosecute targets in a more rapid fashion. So that obviously is something that we advocate for.”[2] General Waldhauser provided this additional comment: “It’s very important and very helpful for us to have a little more flexibility, a little bit more timeliness, in terms of the decision-making process [against al-Shabab].”[3]
The order certainly indicates a willingness to increase counterterrorism activities against Al Shabaab. However, what remains unclear are two critical points. Will President Trump increase US forces in Somalia? Second, is the Trump administration prepared to confront and ultimately defeat the terror group and end their sanctuaries in Somalia? The answers to these questions will indicate the seriousness of purpose of Trump’s war on terrorism in East Africa.
Confronting Terrorism in Yemen
Given the ever-increasing presence of AQAP in Yemen, the growth of their sanctuaries in the country, and the increasing threat to US and regional security, the Trump administration stepped-up American military operations against the terrorist group. The first sign of increased activity came in the form of a US-led Navy SEAL operation against AQAP.
Undaunted by the criticism of the initial controversial raid, President Trump ordered airstrikes to target a series of AQAP sanctuaries and leaders of the transnational network. The number of airstrikes has exceeded 70, with many more strikes still planned.[4]
The air campaign against AQAP clearly indicated a difference between the approaches by Obama and Trump. Dan De Luce and Paul McLeary offered this observation: “The weeklong blitz in Yemen eclipsed the annual bombing total for any year during Obama’s presidency. Under the previous administration, approval for strikes came only after slow-moving policy discussions, with senior officials required to sign off on any action. The Trump administration has proven much quicker at green-lighting attacks. More broadly, the expanded bombing in Yemen signals a more aggressive use of military force by the Trump administration against Islamist militants.”[5]
Trump and the Islamic State
As is the case with most presidential candidates, there are always hawkish statements or talk of the dramatic increase in “the use of force.” Trump’s campaign statements are consistent with most presidential candidates. In an illustration of the candidate position on how he would deal with the Islamic State, Trump warned he would “bomb the hell out of them.”[6]
Confronting ISIS in Iraq and Syria
As quoted in multiple media reports prior to the presidential inauguration, the Pentagon prepared several options to intensify operations against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.[7] After reviewing those options, President Trump approved multiple deployments in the two theatres of operations.
In Iraq, US reinforcements in Mosul include up to 300 Army paratroopers. The dispatch of these troops is designed to accelerate Iraq’s operations against the Islamic State.[8] In Syria, the Pentagon dispatched 400 Marines to support operations by Syrian Kurdish militias. Additionally, 250 US Army Rangers were dispatched to the Northern Syrian city of Manbij to support coalition operations to retake Raqqa, the operational hub of the Islamic State.
In a major move, the Pentagon deployed 2500 combat forces to Kuwait. In testimony before Congress, Army Lt. General Joseph Anderson, the Army’s deputy chief of staff for operations, informed the committee, the forces will be stationed “… there to do all things Mosul, Raqqa, [and] all in between.”[9]
Confronting Terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan
With the Islamic State’s expansion in Afghanistan, the Trump administration decided to increase operations against the terrorist group. Despite the increase in operations, according to Bill Roggio of the Long War Journal, “US and Afghan forces have been attempting to clear the Islamic State’s so-called Khorasan province [or ISIS-K] from Achin and several other districts in eastern Afghanistan for nearly two years, but like the Taliban in other areas of Afghanistan, the group remains entrenched. The deployment of the MOAB may indicate a degree of desperation in the fight against the Islamic State in Achin district.”[10]
Speaking on the decision to deploy the weapon, General John W. Nicholson, Commander of US Forces in Afghanistan noted, “As ISIS-K’s losses have mounted, they are using IEDs, bunkers and tunnels to thicken their defense. This is the right munition to reduce these obstacles and maintain the momentum of our offensive against ISIS-K.”[11] The MOAB did destroy the cave complex and killed 94 ISIS fighters.
President Trump has yet to engage ISIS fighters in Pakistan. There are those that think future strikes against the Islamic State and other terrorist groups may be on the horizon. For example, Seth Jones, Director of the International Security and Defense Policy at Rand argues, “The United States should also commit to aggressively pursuing its enemies wherever it finds them in the region. Unless or until Pakistan changes its strategic calculus, the United States should be prepared to target Al Qaeda, ISIS, the Taliban, and other groups—including on Pakistani soil.”[12]
Assessments of Trump’s War On Terrorism
Several months into President Trump’s war on terrorism, a host of assessments assumed center stage. Peter Feaver observed, “President Donald Trump’s approach to combating terrorism … looks a lot like President Barack Obama’s. It is heavy on the use of special operations raids and American airpower, but it relies primarily on indigenous forces to provide the bulk of the ground forces. To be sure, it is not a carbon copy. It is more open to risk—authorizing more missions than Obama might have, and delegating more decision-making to his subordinate military commanders. But compared to the major alternatives—a large conventional invasion, unrestricted airstrikes, a hands-off approach, or something else—it is more like Obama’s 2016 policy than not.”[13]
Not surprisingly, there are those that have a negative view of Trump’s stewardship of the war on terrorism. Glen Greenwald offers this perspective: “From the start of his presidency, Donald Trump’s “war on terror” has entailed the seemingly indiscriminate slaughter of innocent people in the name of killing terrorists. In other words, Trump has escalated the 16-year-old core premise of America’s foreign policy—that it has the right to bomb any country in the world where people it regards as terrorists are found—and in doing so, has fulfilled the warped campaign pledges he repeatedly expressed.”[14]
Despite efforts to confront terrorism around the world, President Trump has yet to reach a thresh-hold of 50 percent of Americans that approve of the undefined new approach. Still, there is great confidence in how the president is conducting the war on terrorism. Newsweek reports that “under Donald Trump, confidence among Americans that the United States is winning the war on terror remains at its highest level in several years…. Responding to a Rasmussen Reports Poll of 1,000 likely voters this week, 42 percent said that they believed the US and its allies had the upper hand.”[15] In the end, the president’s nascent efforts have indicated a clear change in approach, but one should recognize that it will take a concerted effort and a definitive strategy to formally defeat the Islamic State and other terrorist groups.
Final Thoughts
The Trump administration will soon have to come to grips with problematic reality: the Islamic State may lose their caliphate but the terrorist network will exist for years to come. This point is further amplified by a quote from terrorist expert Bruce Hoffman, who made the following statement: “The Islamic State, alas, is here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future. However much the world may hope for its complete demise after the fall of Sirte, loss of Dabiq [former sanctuaries in Libya], impending collapse of its reign over Mosul, and hoped-for eventual defeat in Raqqa, it will continue to pose an international terrorist threat.”[16]
The Islamic State will remain a major threat because beyond the dissipating caliphate, the organization created a network of terrorist cells in Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and even in the United States that demonstrates the Islamic State created a strategy that indicates it will take an extended period of operations before it is contained.
In the final analysis, President Trump has not announced a formal strategy to defeat terrorism. Instead, President Trump is operating under an ad hoc approach that has caught the attention of terrorist groups, terrorist experts, leaders of states around the world, and even the media. The absence of the strategy and the decision not announce troop deployments has drawn criticism. Ned Price, the former spokesman for President Obama’s national security council, addressed both issues. In the words of Price, “It’s truly shocking that the current administration furtively deploys troops without public debate or describing their larger strategy.”[17]
In the short term, the optics indicate “a transforming terrorist environment” where it appears the days of the Islamic States’ caliphate are numbered. In the long term, the Islamic State still maintains a network of sanctuaries that exists in over thirty states around the world. The recent revelation that the Islamic State seeks alliance with Al Qaeda demonstrates another iteration of the always expanding terrorist threat. It will be interesting to see how President Trump and US counterterrorism officials confront this development.
[1] Ryan Browne, “Trump Approves Plan to Ramp up Somalia Anti-Terror Campaign,” CNN, March 30, 2017. http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/30/politics/trump-ramps-up-somalia-anti-terror-campaig n/.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Morgan Winsor, “Trump’s Directive on Offensive Airstrikes in Somalia Could Fuel Terrorism Recruitment, Experts Warn,” ABCNews, April 1, 2017. http://abcnews.go.com/US/trumps-directive-offensive-airstrikes-somalia-fuel-terrorism-recruitment/story?id=46490369.
[4] Andrew Buncombe, “Donald Trump Administration Orders 70 Airstrikes on Yemen in a Month – Twice As Many As 2016 Total,” The Independent, April 4, 2017. http://www.independent.co.uk/ news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-yemen-airstrikes-monthly-double-2016-obama-a7666676.html.
[5] Dan De Luce and Paul McLeary, “Trump’s Ramped-Up Bombing in Yemen Signals More Aggressive Use of Military,” Foreign Policy, March 9, 2017. http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/ 03/09/trumps-ramped-up-bombing-in-yemen-signals-more-aggressive-use-of-military/.
[6] Donald Trump Running for President. FoxNews.com, June 17, 2015. http://www.foxnews.com/ transcript/2015/06/17/donald-trump-running-for-president/.
[7] Barbara Starr, “Pentagon Readies Aggressive ISIS Proposals for Trump,” CNN, January 17, 2017. http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/17/politics/pentagon-options-isis-trump/.
[8] Andrew deGrandpre and Michelle Tan, “US Reinforcements in Mosul Include Up to 300 Army Paratroopers,” Military Times, March 27, 2017. http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/82nd-airborne-mosul.
[9] Charlsy Panzino and Andrew deGrandpre, “The US is Sending 2,500 Troops to Kuwait, Ready to Step up the Fight in Syria and Iraq,” Army Times, March 9, 2017. https://www.armytimes.com/articles/82nd-airborne-syria-iraq-kuwait-islamic-state.
[10] Bill Roggio, “US Military Drops MOAB on Islamic State in Afghanistan,” Long War Journal, April 13, 2017. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/04/us-military-drops-moab-on-islamic-state-in-afghanistan.php.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Seth G. Jones, “How Trump Should Manage Afghanistan,” Rand, March 21, 2017. https://www .rand.org/blog/2017/03/how-trump-should-manage-afghanistan.html.
[13] Peter Feaver, “Trump’s War on Terror Rejects Obama’s Off-Shore Balancing for Obama’s Operational Raiding,” Foreign Policy, March 22, 2017. http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/22 /trumps-war-on-terror-rejects-obamas-off-shore-balancing-for-obamas-operational-raiding/.
[14] Glen Greenwald, “Trump’s War on Terror Has Quickly Become as Barbaric and Savage as He Promised,” The Intercept, March 26, 2017. https://theintercept.com/2017/03/26/trumps-war-on-terror-has-quickly-become-as-barbaric-and-savage-as-he-promised/.
[15] Jason Le Limere, “Trump is Winning the War on Terror, Americans Tell Pollsters,” Newsweek, March 29, 2017. http://www.newsweek.com/war-terror-trump-winning-isis-islamic-state-5758 86.
[16] Bruce Hoffman, “The Global Terror Threat and Counterterrorism Challenges Facing the Next Administration,” CTC Sentinel, November/December 2016. https://www.ctc.usma.edu/v2/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/CTC-SentinelVol9Iss1113.pdf.
[17] W.J. Wennigan, “Trump Administration Stops Disclosing Troop Deployments in Iraq and Syria,” LATimes, March 30, 2017. http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-trump-deployment-20170330-story.html.
