Presidential inaugurations represent a critical component of American Democracy. The inauguration signifies the peaceful transition of power from the outgoing president and the induction of the new American leader. This post provides a brief examination of some of the security implications of previous presidential inaugurals. Second, the post explores the role of counterterrorism in presidential inaugurals which is usually concerned with foreign threats. And finally, in in light of recent Pro-Trump rioters storming of the capitol, the post closes with the counterterrorism threat posed by potential right-wing violence (domestic terrorism) to President-Elect Joe Biden’s inauguration and similar threats to states across the United States.
There have multiple occasions where U.S. military personnel were deployed for security reasons to preclude potential disruptions during American Presidential Inaugurations. In a notable example, the decision was made to increase security during Abraham Lincoln’s inauguration given the conspicuous threats from Confederate elements which were determined to execute him.[1]
Many historians and political scientists argue that Lincoln’s inauguration remains the most stressful event in U.S. history. Why? There were numerous rumors about threats to kill Lincoln. To preclude any attacks, soldiers were dispatched to the rooftops of homes throughout the parade route.[2]
Some six months after Lincoln’s inauguration, the realities of the security situation is best summarized with these words: “Six weeks after the [Lincoln’s] speech the Civil War, which claimed about 2 percent of the American population, erupted.”[3]
In addition, other high security occurred during the inaugurations of Andrew Johnson’s following the Civil War, Franklin Delano Roosevelt during World War II, and Al Qaeda terrorist threats to George W. Bush’s Second Inauguration during the early period of the war on terrorism.
U.S. Presidential Inaugurations are viewed as a National Special Security Event (NSSE) by the Department of Homeland Security. As such, NSSE’s represent “events that require significant security for the protection of U.S. and foreign dignitaries”[4] and American citizens gathered to support the incoming president.
NSSE’s were formally created during the administration of President Bill Clinton. On May 22, 1998 signed Presidential Decision Directive 62 (PDD-62) which created a framework for the establishment of counterterrorism to address “terrorist apprehension and prosecution”[5] during all designated NSSE’s to include inaugurations.
The essence of the modern framework for security during inaugurations emerged following Congress’ enactment of P.L. 106-544 which was authorized on December 19, 2000. The act directed the president or his designated official to “plan, coordinate, and implement security operations”[6] during NSSE’s.
A host of agencies and departments were designated to counter all threats to U.S. and foreign dignitaries that participated in the inauguration. Examples of the participant federal and state organizations assigned for counterterrorism include the Department of Defense (DOD), Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Federal Protective Service, the Secret Service, and U.S. Military District in Washington.
Additional participants that assume counterterrorism responsibilities both on the Mall and throughout the perimeter of the Capitol and major streets in downtown Washington, DC include but not limited to the U.S. Capital Police (USCP), U.S. Park Police (USP), the Metropolitan Police Department, Maryland State Police, and the Virginia State Police.
In spite of the chatter about a potential terrorist threat during Barack Obama’s inauguration, in reality no definitive threat materialized. Still, the threat from the Somali terrorist group known as Al Shabab was deemed serious enough that Obama’s advisors prepared for contingencies. The threat was viewed as “one of limited specificity and uncertain credibility.”[7] In response, concerned about the threat, senior officials in the Obama White House prepared remarks in the event of an attack.[8] Counterterrorism and White House officials privately acknowledged the information of a pending attack faulty which is to say the Somali contact provided to the U.S. intelligence community lacked credibility.
Counterterrorism And Biden’s Inauguration
The domestic terrorist assault on the Capitol building was forecasted days before the actual siege over what many argue is one of the shrines of American Democracy. In fact, pro-Trump loyalists posted numerous messages on multiple social media platforms about their pending siege of Capitol Hill. In short, the assault represented the most conspicuous domestic terror attack in the history of the United States.
There is another issue. The principal organization, The Capitol Police (CP), whose central mission is to protect the building circulated a 12-page intelligence report that detail a real possibility of a pending assault. An excerpt in the report noted “This sense of desperation [among Trump loyalists] within the Stop the Steal Rally and disappointment may lead to more of an incentive to become violent.”[9] A major issue developed days after the storming and subsequent takeover of the building: the intelligence which was circulated among segments of the CP was not shared with all senior leaders within the organization and worse was not shared with officials in the federal government.
Even without the circulation of critical intelligence report on “the gathering storm” and potential assault, the Chief of The Capitol Police, Steven Sund, who later resigned, informed his superiors on multiple occasions that the size of the protest and the spiraling emotions among participants in the rally represented a clear and present danger to the building.
Sund contacted the director of Army Staff Lieutenant General Walter Piatt with an impassioned plea for National Guard assistance. He was rebuffed. According to reports, Piatt’s response was as follows: “I don’t like the visual of the National Guard standing in a police line with the Capitol in the background.”[10] In short, Piatt argued the issue of optics or how things looked precluded the deployment of the one entity that could have prevented the assault on the Capitol Building.
After multiple requests for support, Sund made this significant statement: “If we would have had the National Guard, we could have held them at bay longer.” Sund asserted he informed the House Sergeant-At-Arms Paul Irving and the Senate Sergeant-At-Arms Michael Stenger that the size of the protest required a beefed-up uniformed presence, but his request was rejected.[11]
Equally concerning, the FBI office in Virginia issued a situational report that warned of violence and even the potential of war during the protest rally. The drafter of the internal memo was concerned the bureau may be “encroaching on free speech rights.”[12] The fact that the memo did not reach headquarters represents another stunning intelligence failure.[13]
In another stunning development, multiple people on the FBI terrorist watch-list participated in the insurrection. Numerous names of confirmed white supremacists were entered into the National Terrorist Screening Database (TSDB), but the individuals still were able to travel and eventually participate in the insurrection.[14]
The dramatic counterterrorism response heading into the inauguration are the result of the FBI which is charged with responding to and thwarting domestic threats to the homeland. An internal memo within the FBI warned pro-Trump groups are determined to disrupt Biden’s inauguration. The memo which FBI informed reporters from The Associated Press, argues the disruptions may begin prior to and continue up and after Biden’s inauguration.
The specific language contained in the FBI Bulletin articulated that “Armed protests are being planned in all 50 state capitols from 16 January through at least 20 January, and at the U.S. Capitol from 17 January through 20 January.”[15]
Since the bulletin law enforcement across the country are on the alert for potential threats. In Washington, DC, a decision was made to deploy 20, 000 National Guard which are composed of soldiers from multiple states. State security has been ramped up across the country that has restricted or reduced access to Capitol Building. Local officials have noted that they will permit small protests but will not allow major protests. Additionally, law enforcement and local counterterrorism officials have noted that support personnel are at the ready in the event of the threat of violence.
In addition, the FBI director issued this chilling statement: “We’re concerned about the potential for violence at multiple protests and rallies planned here in DC and at state capitol buildings around the country in the days to come that could bring armed individuals within close proximity to government buildings and officials.”[17]
Monitoring online chatter among domestic groups, both on the left and the right, FBI intelligence officials have noted the threats have intensified and have become more specific. The new realties forced FBI Director Christopher Wray to issue a public assessment to inform the American public.
In his statement Wray argued, “Right now we’re tracking calls for potential armed protests and activity leading up to the inauguration. The reason I use the word ‘potential’ is because one of the real challenges in this space is trying to distinguish what’s aspirational versus what’s intentional.”[16]
In an effort to preempt potential threats, the FBI and local law enforcement made numerous arrests of suspected individuals determined to conduct attacks prior to or on the day of Biden’s inauguration. Simultaneously, the FBI issued warrants for hundreds of participants in the Capitol insurrection. Numerous arrests have been made and additional warrants have been issued for other arrests.
In another significant counterterrorism development, President Donald Trump agreed with Washington, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser’s request for an emergency declaration ahead of Biden’s inauguration. Not only did Trump agree to ensure 100 percent funding the president authorized outgoing Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf to begin the implementation of security measures immediately. The significance of Wolf’s actions is the measures were issued six days ahead of the previously scheduled security actions.[18]
In statement provided to Fox News, President Donald Trump offered this message on January 13, 2021 to induce a positive environment for Biden’s inauguration: “In light of reports of more demonstrations, I urge that there must be NO violence, NO lawbreaking and NO vandalism of any kind,” Mr. Trump said. “That is not what I stand for, and it is not what America stands for.”[19] A senior White House Press advisor offered a similar statement: “President Trump is asking all Americans to join with him in ensuring that there is an orderly and peaceful transition.”[20] The president, according to the adviser, “Is also asking that Big Tech companies join with him in this effort.”[21]
Biden and his senior advisors, concerned about security at the inauguration, made an important decision. The president-elect informed the Trump White House that he wanted a member of his team to participate in the planning, decision making, and implementation of security measures prior to and during the inauguration. Trump officials accepted Biden’s point person, Lisa Monaco without hesitation.[22]
There are additional preemptive measures that the FBI and local law enforcement officials are engaged in. Specifically, the federal government and local law enforcement personalities are moving expeditiously to launch raids against a host groups and groups leaders deter disrupt the inauguration.
Analysis
One of the salient dilemmas that will take considerable time to resolve is The Capital Police, whose central task is securing the Capitol against all threats, domestic and foreign, is in disarray. There is a leadership crisis within the law enforcement entity.
There is a crisis among the rank and file for multiple reasons. First, the force recognizes they failed to meet their chief responsibility. Second, there are many among the force that have been injured during the rally and siege and they are dealing with emotional wounds. Third, many within the rank and file argue they were placed in an untenable situation given the size, passion, and anger that existed among the contingent of insurrectionists that entered and eventually sized control of the Capitol Building. This not being enough, The Capitol Police are bracing for the outcoming of House investigation which is poised to examine what members of the body have described as a “severe and systemic failure.”
There are additional investigations ongoing. House Speak Nancy Pelosi has appointed famed former General Russell Honore to conduct an independent investigation of the Capital Police. Other investigations are underway. The Inspector Generals in the Department of Defense (DOD), Department of Justice (DOJ), Homeland Security Agency (HAS), and other agencies are engaged in separate investigations surrounding failed security, intelligence gathering, and interagency and even inter-governmental failure to communicate (to include at the federal level and between agencies at the federal level and those and the state and local level).
There are those across the political divide that are requesting the creation of a 9/11 Commission-type investigation. Will the commission creation occur? In the midst of the conclusion of a transition and the commencement of new administration, inside the soon-to-be Biden administration there are rumblings the new presidential agenda and efforts to heel the country following the most contested post-election period in the history of the republic could be disrupted.
The outcome of the above investigations may lead to only cosmetic or procedural changes. In the background counterterrorism officials are hard at working on scenarios where non-state (transnational terrorist organizations) and state actors (particularly Russia, China, and Iran) may seek to exploit the security failures to target National Security events in the future.
The hope among people across the United States regardless of political affiliation and among Democratic governments around the world is the Biden inauguration occurs without disruption.
Endnotes
[1] Bob D’Angelo, “Inauguration Day Security: Tensions Were High When Lincoln Took Office in 1861,” www.kiro7.com, January 11, 2021. https://www.kiro7.com/news/trending/inauguration-day-security-tensions-were-high-when-lincoln-took-office-1861/IPMLP5K4VENJA75VLWOT G4E&M/.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Emel Akan, “U.S. Prepares for One of the Most Unusual Inaugurations in History,” The Epoch Times, January 17, 2021. https://theepochtimes.com/us-prepares-for-one-of-the-most-unusual-inaugurations-in-history_3660200.html.
[4] Shawn Reese, Jacob R. Straus, and Christina M. Bailey, “Inauguration Security: Operations, Appropriations, Issues for Congress,” Congressional research Service (CRS), January 11, 2017, p.1.
[5] Ibid., p. 2.
[6] Ibid., p. 5.
[7] John Boonstra, “Was There an Attempted Somali Terrorist Attack At Barrack Obama’s Inauguration?” UNDispach.com, January 21, 2009. https://www.undispatch.com/was-there-an-attempted-somali-terrorist-attack-at-barack-obamas-inauguaration.
[8] Justin Sink, “WH Prepared for Terrorist Attack at Obama’s First Inauguration.” The Hill, February 10, 2015. https://thehill.com/home news/administration/232295-wh-prepared-for-terrorist-attack-at-obamas-first-inauguaration.
[9] Sarah Pollus, “Capitol Police Report Warned That Congress Could be Targeted Three Days Before Riot,” The Hill, January 15, 2021. https://thehill.com/homenews/news/534542-capitol-police-report-warned-that-congress-could-be-targeted-three-days-before.
[10] Glenn Thrush and Helene Cooper, “The Capitol Police Chief Says His Pleas for Backup Were Ignored by the Sergeants-At-Arms and the Pentagon,” New York Times, January 11, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com /2021/01/11/us/capitol-police-backup-ignored.html.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Devlin Barrett and Matt Zapotosky, “FBI Report Warned of ‘War’ at Capitol, Contradicting Claims There was No Indication of Looming Violence,” Washington Post, January 12, 2021. https://www.washin gtonpost.com/national-security/capitol-riot-fbi-intelligence/2021/01/12/30d1 2748-546e7f8a406d6_11eb-a817-e5e7f8a406d6_story.html.
[13] Ibid.
[14] Devlin Barrett, Spencer S. Hsu, and Marissa J. Lang, “Dozens of People on FBI Terrorist Watch-List Came to DC the Day of Capitol Riot,” Washington Post, January 14, 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/terror-wartchlist-capitol-riot-fbi/2021/01/14/07412814-55f7-11eb-a931-5b12d0d033d_story.html.
[15] Colleen Long, Michael Balsamo, and Michael Kunzelman, “FBI Warns of Plans for Armed Protests at All 50 State Capitals Next Week,” Chicago Tribune, January 13, 2021. https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-nw-fbi-bulletin-armed-protests-20210111-4ayc73bv6bhwvpl77euctzexuy-story.html.
[16] Aaron Fies, “FBI Tracking ‘Concerning’ Online Buzz Related to Inauguration Day,” New York Post, January 14, 2020. https://nypost.com/ 2021/01/14/fbi-tracking-online-buzz-related-to-inauguration-day?utmsource -Gmail.
[17] Ibid.
[18] Morgan Chalfant, “Trump Approves DC Emergency Declaration Ahead of Biden Inauguration,” The Hill, January 11. 2021. https//msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-appreoves-dc-emergency-declaration-ahead-of-biden-inauguration/ar-BB1cF1CE.
[19] Michael Gold, “Trump Urges No Violence or Vandalism at Demonstrations,” New York Times, January 13, 2021. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-urges-no-violence-or-vand alism-at-demonstrations/ar-BB1cIYYz?ocid=msedgntp.
[20] Ibid.
[21] Ibid.
[22] “Biden Names Lisa Monaco as Temporary Adviser for Inauguration Security,” Reuters, January 14, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-biden-inauguration-monaco/biden-names-lisa-monaco-as-temporary-adviser-for-inauguration-security-idUSL1N2JP2N4.
