Thus far, the administration of Donald Trump has not created and released a National Security Strategy document. Similarly, no official in the administration has delivered a speech outlining the president’s counterterrorism strategy. That said, there is available evidence of what constitutes components of a counterterrorism strategy. This post outlines a host of “features” that when taken collectively constitutes President Trump’s “emerging” counterterrorism strategy.
Background
During the campaign Trump never offered a counterterrorism approach. The candidate did make a statement about an anti-ISIS strategy. In an address on September 7, 2016 at the Union League of Philadelphia, Trump stated that upon becoming president, “We are going to convey to my top generals and give them a simple instruction. They will have 30 days to submit to the Oval Office a plan for soundly and quickly defeating ISIS.”[1] Beyond that statement, the administration to date has not provided a formal strategy against ISIS or “a grand counterterrorism” strategy.
Long after receiving the strategy proposal for defeating the Islamic State, President Trump still has not announced the administration’s counter-ISIS strategy, or a formal counterterrorism approach that conveys the president’s objectives in dealing with the major transnational terrorist organizations. What accounts for the administration’s silence?
During the campaign, Trump forcefully announced, “If I win, I don’t want to broadcast to the enemy exactly what my plan is.”[2] That statement concerned Trump’s ISIS plan. Now in office President Trump must develop and release a counterterrorism strategy. The president’s strategy will not reveal a military plan. The fact is the strategy serve a critical purpose: it will communicate the administration’s “motivations,” “the way forward” and the “limitations” of its strategy.
The Rudimentary Features of Trumps Counterterrorism Strategy
President Trump has not provided a speech that formally advanced the components of the administration’s approach to counterterrorism. In keeping with the campaign rhetoric that carried over to his presidency, Trump has not unveiled any details about his administration’s approach to dealing terrorism.
Though there is no formal presidential address or a speech by the secretary of defense or any other official for that matter, there is evidence of components that provide a sense of President Trump’s approach. Those components include the following: (1) the administration will pursue ideology as an instrument to defeat radical Islamic terrorism; (2) make use of an international conference to enlist Muslim states to work to distinguish radical Islamic ideology and increase the participation of these countries to actively engage in an alliance to defeat the Islamic State and other transnational terrorist groups; (3) institute changes in US immigration policy to assist in the defeat of terrorism in the homeland; (4) a reliance (and perhaps and expansion) on the counterterrorism infrastructure developed during the administration of George W. Bush; (5) the decision to target the Islamic State and to include Al Qaeda and their affiliates in the administration’s approach, (6) create a new strategy in Afghanistan, and (7) following the review of “the Pentagon’s findings” that resulted in two significant presidential changes, the Pentagon used the modifications to assist in the implementation of President Trump’s approach to defeat radical Islamic terrorism. Those decisions include (a) “delegated authority to the right level to aggressively in a timely manner move against enemy vulnerabilities”[3] and (b) “directed a tactical shift from shoving ISIS out of safe locations in an attrition fight to surrounding the enemy in their strongholds so we can annihilate ISIS.”[4]
A second critical feature of the Trump administration’s approach to counterterrorism is the “change in Obama administration restrictive rules.” The administration issued a temporary suspension whereby the president “declared parts of three provinces of Yemen” as “active hostilities in Yemen.”[5] In Somalia, President Trump Eased Combat Rules. The changes in the rules of engagement set the stage for a dramatic increase in counterterrorism activities in Yemen and to a lesser a degree Somalia.
Trump’s Strategy For Afghanistan
On Afghanistan, President Trump order the Pentagon to provide a proposal for a “new strategy.” In an August 21, 2017 speech at Fort Myers in Arlington, Virginia, President Trump delivered a speech on the new strategy. In a key portion of the address, Trump observed there are “three fundamental conclusions about America’s core interests in Afghanistan.”[6] The “three fundamental conclusions” include the following: “First, our nation must seek an honorable and enduring outcome worthy of the tremendous sacrifices that have been made, especially the sacrifices of lives. Second, the consequences of a rapid exit [from Afghanistan] are both predictable and unacceptable…. A hasty withdrawal would create a vacuum that terrorists, including ISIS and Al Qaeda, would instantly fill, just as happened before September 11th. Third and finally, I concluded that the security threats we face in Afghanistan and the broader region are immense. Today, 20 US-designated foreign terrorist organizations are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan—the highest concentration in any region anywhere in the world. For its part, Pakistan often gives safe haven to agents of chaos, violence, and terror. The threat is worse because Pakistan and India are two nuclear-armed states whose tense relations threaten to spiral into conflict. And that could happen.”[7]
President Trump unveiled the administration’s “four-pronged” strategy for Afghanistan and South Asia. The strategy consists of (1) shift from “a time-based approach to one based on conditions”; (2) “Our new strategy is to change the approach and how to deal with Pakistan. We can no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe havens for terrorist organizations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond”; (3) a “critical part of the South Asia strategy for America is to further develop [the]… strategic partnership with India. We appreciate India’s important contributions to stability in Afghanistan, but India makes billions of dollars in trade with the United States, and we want them to help us more with Afghanistan”, and (4) Trump promises to ensure “the brave defenders of the American people, will have the necessary tools and rules of engagement to make this strategy work, and work effectively and work quickly.”[8]
In an important statement, President Trump, as part of his Afghanistan strategy address, announced his brand of counterterrorism will have clear results: “From now on, victory will have a clear definition: attacking our enemies, obliterating ISIS, crushing Al Qaeda, preventing the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan, and stopping mass terror attacks against America.”[9]
Implementation of Trump’s Counterterrorism Strategy
There are several areas that indicate how the Trump administration implemented their expansive counterterrorism strategy. Yemen is one country where President Trump implemented a critical aspect of administration’s counterterrorism strategy. In a focus on one of Al Qaeda’s affiliates, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the administration moved to curtail the territorial expansion of a terrorist group that used the civil war in Yemen as vehicle to fill a power vacuum and extend their influence.
In Somalia, the administration has increased drone strikes and raids against Al Shabab. It is clear, the administration is removing Obama’s restrictive rules of engagement and it is depending less on AMISOM peacekeeping troops to contain the terrorist group in Southern Somalia.
The Trump administration has dispatched US special forces to fight in the Philippines. The elite warriors are assisting in combat operations against two terrorist groups (Abu Sayyaf and Maute) backed by the Islamic State in Marawi.
Iraq and Syria have witnessed a shift in approach. Most notably, the Trump administration relies more on conventional combat forces, yet another shift from the approach employed by the Obama administration. In addition, President Trump has increased the use of American Special Forces to “annihilate” the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
In Afghanistan, the Trump administration is not only increasing counterterrorism operations against the Taliban, but the decision was made to confront the ISIS-K, an Islamic State splinter group that holds significant territory in the province. To reduce the threat to American and coalition forces, US Drops ‘Mother of All Bombs’ on ISIS Caves in Afghanistan. The decision to unleash a major weapon system is considered a “game changer”; it demonstrates the administration’s willingness to use lethal force to defeat the enemy.
Analysis
One of the salient criticisms of the Trump administration’s counterterrorism is that the president has yet to announce an approach. While there are clear distinctions between the Trump and Obama administration’s approaches, there is no substitute for a counterterrorism strategy. Evidence indicates that a formal counterterrorism strategy is likely to be announced in early 2018. Some of the details of the strategy have been leaked to Reuters.
Two components of the forthcoming Trump administration counterterrorism strategy include the intensification of “operations against global jihadist groups while also reducing the costs of American ‘blood and treasure’ in pursuit of our counterterrorism goals.”[10] Second, the Trump administration seeks “to avoid costly, large-scale US military interventions to achieve counterterrorism objectives and will increasingly look to partners to share the responsibility.”[11]
Michael Anton, the spokesman for the National Security Council, issued this important statement: “As part of its overall approach, the administration is taking a fresh look at the entire US national security strategy, to include the counterterrorism mission” and “the new strategy is directed against the preeminent terrorist threats to our nation, our citizens, and to our interests overseas and our allies.”[12]
Though the components are critical, it remains to be seen if the administration, will do what the two previous have done, increase the size of SOFs. Additionally, many experts assert that since the elite warriors have been overstretched, it might be wise to deploy the infantry units to reduce the load on SOFs in future counterterrorism missions.
President Trump altered or rolled back many of the Obama administration counterterrorism initiatives, most notably in the war with the Islamic State, and in the “restrictive rules” in Iraq, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen. It is highly likely that other restrictive rules have lifted elsewhere around the world. There is little doubt the removal of these restrictive rules is long overdue. That said, the Trump administration must ensure the changes in the rules of engagement does not lead to an increase in civilian casualties.
Finally, a formal counterterrorism strategy must be approved and made available to the public. While the Trump administration has made significant improvements in US counterterrorism practices, however, without a formal speech, statement, or the release of a national security document, the administration runs the risk of having an “ad hoc approach” to counterterrorism.
[1] “Donald Trump Wants Military to Hatch Plan to Stop ISIS in 30 Days,” Time, September 7, 2016. http://time.com/4481791/donald-trump-isis-30-days/.
[2] Jacob Pramuk, “Trump: I Don’t Give a Specific ISIS Plan Because I Don’t Want Enemies to Know It, “CNBC.com, September 7, 2016. https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/07/trump-i-dont-give-a-specific-isis-plan-because-i-dont-want-enemies-to-know-it.html.
[3] Department of Defense Press Briefing by Secretary Mattis, General Dunford and Special Envoy McGurk on the Campaign to Defeat ISIS in the Pentagon Press Briefing Room, News Transcript. US Department of Defense. May 19, 2017. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript -View/Article/1188225/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-secretary-mattis-general-dunford-and-sp/.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Charles Savage and Eric Schmitt, “Trump Administration Is Said to Be Working to Loosen Counterterrorism Rules,” New York Times, March 12, 2017. https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017 /03/12 /us/politics/trump-loosen-counterterrorism-rules.html.
[6] Remarks by President Trump on the Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia, Fort Myer, Arlington, Virginia. The White House, Donald J. Trump. Office of the Press Secretary, August 21, 2017. https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/21/remarks-president-trump-strate gy-afghanistan-and-south-asia.
[7] Ibid.
[8] Ibid.
[9] Ibid.
[10] Jonathan Landay and Warren Strobel, “Exclusive: Trump Counterterrorism Strategy Urges Allies to Do More,” Reuters, May 5, 2017. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-extremism-idUSKBN1812AN.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Ibid.
